Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Stanford CSP. BUS 152 - Innovation Timing. Session 2, Quiz 1

Background

The public's interest in Bitcoin rose sharply in 2013-14.


For example, on January 21, 2014, in a NYT article titled "Why Bitcoin Matters", Marc Andressen wrote:
Bitcoin gives us, for the first time, a way for one Internet user to transfer a unique piece of digital property to another Internet user, such that the transfer is guaranteed to be safe and secure, everyone knows that the transfer has taken place, and nobody can challenge the legitimacy of the transfer. The consequences of this breakthrough are hard to overstate.
Despite its great promise, this major breakthrough has not materialized yet. Nevertheless, the Google Trends chart above shows a noticeable uptick in Bitcoin-related interest in 2017. For example. a recent post on CloudTech by James Bourne titled "Blockchain beyond Bitcoin: Assessing the enterprise use cases" states that the technology "has serious potential to disrupt a multitude of industries." Also, Cade Metz in a January 6, 2017, Wired article titled "Bitcoin Will Never Be a Currency—It’s Something Way Weirder" reports on the general sentiment about Bitcoin, "Bitcoin is not something the average person will ever use to buy and sell stuff... It’s not something that will improve what the world has, such as money or stock. It’s something that will give the world stuff it has never had."

Quiz:
1. In your opinion, does Bitcoin follow the process generally described as Hype Cycle? Explain briefly.
1a. If yes, what is the current stage of the technology relative to the cycle?
1b. If no, how do you explain the 2014 peak and the significant investments VC funds put into Bitcoin-related startups?

2. Is the 2017 Bitcoin (and related technology) comeback for real? Where would you place the technology on the S-curve and Adopter Distribution chart as of today? Explain briefly.


2 comments:

A propos said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Yassine KOUSKSOU said...

1.Hype Cycle for Bitcoin

In my opinion, Bitcoin (as currency exchange) and blockchain technology follow the process described as Hype Cycle. I think both are actually into “The Trough of Disillusionment” because there are still technical things that need to be solved and there are still many business model aspects that are not completely clear.
The Bitcoin’s price rose in a few years from a few dollars to a thousand. So I think it is following the Gartner’s hype cycle and it can be put at the beginning of the “slope to enlightenment”.

2.2017 Bitcoin

The new IBM study, "Leading the Pack in Blockchain Banking: Trailblazers Set the Pace”, that farmed insights from 200 global banks revealed that 15% of those banks will start implementing blockchain solutions powering their products and services to customers as early as 2017.

Many other statistics show that the Bitcoin industry has made rapid gains and continues to grow. I think that the 2017 Bitcoin and related technology are entering stage 3 (Early Majority) of the Distribution Adoption Chart.