Just 30 percent of people who buy an iPhone application actually use it the day after it was purchased, according to Pinch Media, which analyzed over 30 million downloads from Apple's App Store. And the numbers plunge from there: after 20 days, less than 5 percent of those who downloaded an application are actively using it. The drop-off is worse for free applications.
We should expect emergence of a small stable core of iPhone applications. Most likely the emergence will coincide with proliferation of business-related "cloud" services. Quite possible that Microsoft will be successful in extending its Office franchise into the mobile space.
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