Previously, on this blog:
- Introduction and Prologue: Unlearning What's Untrue.
- Section I. Using Systems Thinking for Understanding Technology, Inventions, and Patents.
- Section II. Thinking Outside the Box.
In Section III, we apply the model and outside-the-box thinking to determine the timing of a particular innovation.
Chapter 11. We start with the S-curve that describes a surprisingly diverse range of system evolution scenarios.
|FIGURE 1.1a A generic S curve: Time/effort-performance. (From R.A. Burgelman, C.M. Christensen et al., Strategic Management of Technology and Innovation, 2009 .)|
|FIGURE 1.1b A typical age-weight S curve for a mammal, e.g. rat (From Geoffrey West, Ted Talk, July 2011 .)|
|FIGURE 1.1c Walmart: Time-Sales S curve. (From Geoffrey West, Ted Talk, July 2011 .)|
|FIGURE 1.1d Market adoption S curve. TVs and PCs. A 1984 actual and forecast. (From Everett M. Rogers, The diffusion of home computers among households in Silicon Valley, Marriage & Family Review 8, 1985 .)|
Chapter 12. A Stage of System Evolution: Synthesis.
Here, we start looking why certain inventions can be too early to the market and what kind of problems innovators have to solve to get the system off the ground.
|FIGURE 12.1 1979. Electronic book, US Patent 4,159,417. David P. Rubicam .|
|FIGURE 12.2 Gartner hypecycle. (Fromhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle.)|
|FIGURE 12.3 Dr. Philips T. James et al., The worldwide obesity epidemic, Obesity Research 9, 2012 .|
Chapter 13. A Stage of System Evolution: Early Growth. We talk about the key elements of system growth, including the Dominant Design and Copycats.
|FIGURE 13.1 Dominant design: An ancient Roman bathtub in the Science Museum in London. The vast majority of modern bathtubs have the same form and function as this 2,000-year-old exhibit.|
Chapter 15. A Paradigm Shift within the System. We discuss how growth enters a virtuous cycle.
|FIGURE 15.1 The original shopping cart, US Patent 2,155,896|
|FIGURE 15.2 Shopping cart with multiple baskets, US Patent 2,196,914. You can see that Sylvan Goldman designed it using a folding chair and some wheels.|
Chapter 16. Infrastructure Innovations: Timing Is Everything.
|FIGURE 16.1 Google Fiber project diagram. (From a construction update, Google Fiber Blog, April 04, 2012 .)|
Chapter 17. Infrastructure and Growth: Zooming In on the Micro Level
|FIGURE 17.1 Moore’s original projection from 1965 to 1975. (From Gordon Moore, Cramming more components onto integrated circuits, Electronics 38, 1965.)|
|FIGURE 17.2 3-D representation of a multilayer IC metallization scheme. (From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuit.)|
FIGURE 17.3 Optical versus electrical interconnect. (From Andrew Alduino and Mario Paniccia, Interconnects:␣Wiring electronics with light, Nature Photonics 1, 2007 .)
|FIGURE 20.1 Wired: The web is dead. (From http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_webrip/ all/1.)|
(To be continued...)