Decision Making and Problem Solving

From a 1987 paper by a group of then present and future Nobel Laureates:

Because the possibilities in realistic problem situations are generally multitudinous, trial-and-error search would simply not work; the search must be highly selective.

The more difficult the problem, the smaller are the chances that a simple brainstorming session would lead to a solution it.

One of the procedures often used to guide search is "hill climbing," using some measure of approach to the goal to determine where it is most profitable to look next.

This is relevant to the Three Magicians technique (3x3). A combination of the "Climb on the Roof" and "Fall back - Spring ahead" usually works the best.

Another, and more powerful, common procedure is means-ends analysis. In means-ends analysis, the problem solver compares the present situation with the goal, detects a difference between them, and then searches memory for actions that are likely to reduce the difference.

In open-ended (inventive) problems setting the goal is often the most difficult task. That's why formulating the Ideal Result and stating dilemmas helps identify the gap between the present and the future. The 10X diagram also comes very handy in this type of discussions.

The third thing that has been learned about problem solving, especially when the solver is an expert, is that it relies on large amounts of information that are stored in memory and that are retrievable whenever the solver recognizes cues signaling its relevance.

During this stage, participation of the subject matter experts is essential. In earlier stages though, they should be kept in check, because they carry "the curse of knowledge". That is, the experts' psychological inertia often prevents them from finding a creative solution.


References:
Decision Making and Problem Solving
Author(s): Herbert A. Simon, George B. Dantzig, Robin Hogarth, Charles R. Plott, Howard Raiffa, Thomas C. Schelling, Kenneth A. Shepsle, Richard Thaler, Amos Tversky, Sidney Winter.
Source: Interfaces, Vol. 17, No. 5 (Sep. - Oct., 1987), pp. 11-31
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25061004