Wednesday, June 24, 2009

10X change: a baby in one month from 9 pregnant women.

In today's interview with MSNBC, Warren Buffet, while talking about the sorry state of the world's economy, uses the famous "one-month baby" metaphor. Describing the government's inability to jump-start a new growth cycle he says,

"But you can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant, you know. (Laughs.) It just doesn't work that way. So you can be throwing things at the economy and they will have an impact, but they haven't had much impact yet."

Economic issues aside, why is it considered impossible to produce a baby in one month? Think about it: 255 babies are born every minute in the world. This means that with the right impregnation strategy we can produce a baby every quarter of a second! This simple calculation shows that producing one baby in a month must be a pretty trivial task. All you need to do is to run an infinite process that impregnates one woman every month. Once you decide to have a baby, you are guaranteed one in no more than 30 days. Maybe even less. So, why do we have this notion the problem is impossible to solve? What are the assumptions that prevent us from thinking creatively?

With this background, here are some tasks for class discussion:

1. Draw a 10X diagram for the "baby in one month problem".
2. Identify key parameters of a disruptive, rather than "normal" impregnation/birth business model.
3. Come up with technologies that enable this disruptive business model.
4. Draw a 10X diagram for an economy in recession.
5. Come up with a disruptive growth business model.

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