I never fail to credit the element of luck.
My personal success stems in part from the fact that Fairchild’s timing and direction were extremely fortuitous. Semiconductor science and technology were evolving rapidly. Fairchild invented the planar technology that provided the basis for the integrated circuit. Intel made a lucky choice of a new version of the MOS technology using a silicon layer for the gate of the transistors.
The luck of this valley stems from the fact that it began with a fairly clean slate in a wide-open technology space.Moore's insight about luck gives us an important attribute of a possible successful innovation: wide-open technology space. We should also realize that when Moore talks about technology he means the business of technology, not just the technical side of a specific implementation.
Similarly, when Steve Jobs introduced PC and, later, iPod he targeted a wide open business-technology spaces.
This aspect of luck can be captured by using my 4Q diagram approach (one of the topics of today's class at Stanford).