Quote of the Day: Model-Dependent Realism

 Stephen Hawking (and Leonard Mlodinow) write:

we will adopt a view that we will call model-dependent realism: the idea that a physical theory or world picture is a model (generally of a mathematical nature) and a set of rules that connect the elements of the model to observations. (The Grand Design).

In Scalable Innovation, Max and I introduce a system model (my Stanford students know it as 5-element analysis) and multiple case studies that connect the model to observation. Part I of the book briefly introduces the model and shows how to make the connections. Part II discusses methods for navigating system levels and their connections to reality. Finally, Part III shows the system dynamics: how it evolves along the S-curve and its correspondence to observations.

tags: book, quote, model, five element analysis,

Invention of the day: a USB mouse that hacks your PC.

For this attack, the security experts equipped the mouse with an additional micro-controller with USB support (Teensy Board) to simulate a keyboard, and added a USB flash drive to the setup.

When connected to the PC, the Teensy Board's Atmel controller sent keyboard inputs to the computer and ran software that was stored on the USB flash drive. This allowed Netragard to install the Meterpreter remote control software, which is part of the Metasploit framework.

The crux of the attack was to find a suitable company employee who would, upon receiving the computer mouse, connect it to a company PC without becoming suspicious.

The security experts selected one of the employees and sent the mouse in its original packaging – camouflaged as a promotional gadget.

[In a related study] the US Department of Homeland Security found that 60 per cent of users will naively connect a USB flash drive to their PC to see what is stored on it.

This reminds me of stories about medieval poisoning plots involving members of the treacherous Borgia family. They didn't use the bite of a poisoned mouse, though.

Thinking aloud...

A typical hacking attack involves 0) getting a person in a position to enter a malicious command; 1) entering the command; 2) downloading malicious software; 3) installing the software; 4) performing a malicious operation; 5) cleanup and/or escape undetected.

It would be interesting to map major key security penetration cases to this sequence of steps, from ancient Trojan Horse to Enigma to Stuxnet.

tags: invention, innovation, security, information, system,  control, five element analysis

Problem solving and bilingualism.

  - Why did the cat bark? 
- He wanted to learn a second language. 
(A children joke).

NYTimes publishes an interview with Ellen Bialystok, a neuroscientist who has spent almost 40 years learning about how bilingualism sharpens the mind. Her recent work shows that, among other things, bilingualism delays the onset of Alzheimer's symptoms.

I also find it interesting that researchers see differences in physical brain activity when mono- and bilinguals solve the same problems:

...when we look in their [bilinguals'] brains through neuroimaging, it appears like they’re using a different kind of a network that might include language centers to solve a completely nonverbal problem. Their whole brain appears to rewire because of bilingualism.

On the problem-solving side, I find that using abstract system-level language instead of a specific engineering or technology jargon helps me and my students approach the problem from a different perspective. I call this language "Inventorese." Maybe it should count as my 5th one :)

Finally, long-held common sense belief on the subject turned out to be wrong:

Until about the 1960s, the conventional wisdom was that bilingualism was a disadvantage.

tags: brain, mind, communications, psychology, creativity, system, five element analysis, health, bias

Patents and business models

Steve Blank, a successful Silicon Valley entrepreneur, offers an interesting definition of a startup business: a startup is an organization formed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model. He further explains:

Think of a business model as a drawing that shows all the flows between the different parts of your company. A business model diagram also shows how the product gets distributed to your customers and how money flows back into your company. And it shows your company’s cost structures, how each department interacts with the others and where your company fits with other companies or partners to implement your business.

I find business model-based approach highly useful in developing invention and patent strategies, especially, for startups. The purpose of an IP portfolio is not to protect your technology, but create prohibitive risks for competition attempting to enter your newly discovered business space. Technology is just one element of the model. Protecting technology with patents will only create a false sense of security, because at the time of patent writing (remember, you are still in search mode), you don't know which patent claims are going to be allowed by the Patent Office.

Patenting, in contrast with invention, is about business risk creation. Therefore, it should be guided by the business model search, e.g. with conscious efforts to discover business model weak spots and directing inventions and claims to attack the vulnerabilities.

P.S. The 9-screen view and 5-element analysis provide much better tools for business model analysis than the standard Osterwalder drawing. The tools have multilayer flow-based concepts built-in, which allows for easy identification of control points.

tags: patent, strategy, business, model, system, 3x3, five element analysis, startup, scalability

Creativity as a function of language.

From a recent article in WSJ:

Languages, of course, are human creations, tools we invent and hone to suit our needs.

It turns out that if you change how people talk, that changes how they think. If people learn another language, they inadvertently also learn a new way of looking at the world. When bilingual people switch from one language to another, they start thinking differently, too.

This is a yet another reason to ask problem solvers, e.g. engineers, managers, entrepreneurs, to reformulate the problem in jargon-free terms. Very often their ability to find a solution is constrained by their inability to describe the situation in language that does not imply a specific approach dictated by past professional experiences. Switching from verbal to graphical descriptions, e.g. by using the Three Magicians method or Five Elements analysis, helps overcome this issue.

tags: creativity, method, magicians, five element analysis, problem, solution, example, information

An improved deal for authors from Amazon:

Starting on June 30, Amazon says that for each Kindle book sold, authors and publishers who select the new 70 percent royalty option will receive 70 percent of the list price, minus delivery costs. This new option will be in addition to and will not replace the existing DTP standard royalty option, which is set at a 65-35 split, with 65 percent going to Amazon.

Will authors make more money from now on? Maybe, initially. But over time, the most likely outcome will be a steep drop in price for electronic books. Trade "paperbacks" will probably go down to the $3-5 range. Even at this level authors will make more money than with traditional publishers. We should also expect new formats that allow embedded media: video, audio, animations, and etc. One obvious choice would be a portable $1 application that feeds content, e.g. one episode at a time. Apple is already doing it with iTunes, and publishers, like New York Times or cable networks, will follow the model.


In 5-element analysis terms, this is a change in payload packaging, which usually precedes an expansion and drastic changes in other system elements.

tags: system, five element analysis, content, apple, information, computers, payload, evolution

With power supply being a major datacenter cost driver, Google steps in to become an electric power marketer:

The Internet search company, which consumes vast amounts of electricity to run the computers in its data centers, created a subsidiary last month called Google Energy. It then applied for approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to be allowed to buy and sell power much like utilities do.

Google said it did not have specific plans to become an energy trader and that its primary goal was to gain flexibility for buying more renewable energy for its power-hungry data centers.

Looking beyond data center applications, future smart grid power meters are going to generate lots of information. Access to and processing of this information would be consistent with the overall Google's mission to "organize the world's information". To speculate further, Google could become a catalyst for the next generation auction-based power market, similar to the one they run for their keyword search adds.

tags: energy, information, market, control, computers, google, efficiency, magicians, five element analysis,

Remarkable how the US still pays millions of dollars for a military technology that can be defeated with a $500 laptop and $25.95 worth of software.

WSJ. WASHINGTON -- Militants in Iraq have used $26 off-the-shelf software to intercept live video feeds from U.S. Predator drones, potentially providing them with information they need to evade or monitor U.S. military operations.

The Air Force has staked its future on unmanned aerial vehicles. Drones account for 36% of the planes in the service's proposed 2010 budget.

Today, the Air Force is buying hundreds of Reaper drones, a newer model, whose video feeds could be intercepted in much the same way as with the Predators, according to people familiar with the matter. A Reaper costs between $10 million and $12 million each and is faster and better armed than the Predator.

I would think that in the nearest future video feeds from police drones will be easily intercepted by hightech criminals.

From a 5-element analysis perspective, this is a very good illustration of how critical Payload packaging is for the overall system integrity and performance. The ability to handle the format of the video feed in question is deeply embedded into all relevant subsystems. Changing the format would require a technology overhaul that would cost the military billions of dollars.

tags: five element analysis, payload, control point, control, information, drones, transportation, 10X, constraint

A quote from Michael Wheeler's book "Reconstructing the cognitive world":

The strength of these connections are known as the network's weights, and it is common to think of the network's "knowledge" as being stored in its set of weights. The values of these weights are modifiable, so, given some initial configuration, changes to the weights can be made that improve the performance of the network over time.
... the specific structure of the network, and the weight-adjustment algorithm, the network may learn to carry out some desired input-output mapping.
... most connectionist networks also exploit a distinctive kind of representation, so-called distributed representation, according to which a representation is conceived as a pattern of activation spread out across a group of processing units. p.10

From this perspective, relevancy of information relates to its ability to change the network's weights. Irrelevant information passes by through the network without reconfiguring its "knowledge" and/or ability to act upon it.

Also of interest, a technique to build intelligence into a distribution sub-system. In this case, the distribution and control components of the system are integrated and cannot be substituted with a competing solution. The "vertical" axis (Distribution--Control) on the 5-element system diagram becomes not just important, but essential to the system's performance.

tags: cognition, network, control, computers, information, distribution, system, five element analysis

Local electric power production and storage is needed

Two cases when adding new consumption or production capacity (Tool) leads to unintended consequences for the existing infrastructure (Distribution).

The first example relates to the predicted increase in the number of electric cars in California:

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- California’s push to lead U.S. sales of electric cars may result in higher power rates for consumers in the state, as a growing number of rechargeable vehicles forces utilities to pay for grid upgrades.

A typical Santa Monica circuit, which serves about 10 households, may be overloaded should two or three of those customers charge vehicles simultaneously, even if they do so overnight during off-peak hours, Ted Craver, Edison’s chief executive officer, said in a phone interview on Oct. 20.

While surplus power is available at night at cheaper rates, the grid needs adjustments to handle such charging, Craver said. For example, additional or larger transformers may be needed in neighborhoods with numerous plug-in car owners.

In the second example, Science magazine describes the potential impact of biofuel production on the water distribution infrastructure:

Biofuels promise energy and climate gains, but in some cases, those improvements wouldn't be dramatic. And they come with some significant downsides, such as the potential for increasing the price of corn and other food staples. Now, a series of recent studies is underscoring another risk: A widespread shift toward biofuels could pinch water supplies and worsen water pollution. In short, an increased reliance on biofuel trades an oil problem for a water problem.

Making matters worse, other U.S. energy sectors are growing and increasing their demand for water. Another recent report from Argonne by Deborah Elcock, an energy and environmental policy analyst, for example, found that water consumption for energy production in the United States will jump two-thirds between 2005 and 2030—from about 6 billion gallons of water per day to roughly 10 bgd—driven primarily by population growth. About half of that increase will go toward growing biofuels.

tags: five element analysis, tool, distribution, system, greatest, maturity, hype, energy

Monetization of Gossip

Twitter hits 5 billion tweets:

Former Current Media executive Robin Sloan appears to have posted Twitter's 5 billionth tweet, in the form of a reply to another user that otherwise read only "Oh lord."

The company [Twitter] recently raised another round of funding at a valuation somewhere in the neighborhood of $1 billion.

To twitt or not to twitt: that is the question.



tags: distribution, 10x, payload, youtube, five element analysis, information, infrastructure

An important principle to keep in mind when using The Three Magicians and The Five Elements analysis:

Любой сложный объект может члениться либо на элементы, либо на единицы. Особенность членения объекта на единицы состоит в том, что продукты членения сохраняют свойства целого. Членение на элементы, наоборот, приводит к таким продуктам, которые свойств целого не имеют.

Any complex object can be divided into either elements or units. Units maintain properties of the whole, while elements do not.

G.P. Schedrovitsky. The processes and structures of thinking. Chapter 3.
ПРОЦЕССЫ И СТРУКТУРЫ В МЫШЛЕНИИ.

Plasmons and trains - what's the difference?

Here's claim 1 of US Patent 7542633:

A method comprising: guiding a plasmon signal on a first plasmon guide; selectively controlling the guided plasmon signal with a plurality of control signals, wherein at least one of the plurality of control signals includes optical electromagnetic energy guided through a waveguide that is directly coupled to the first plasmon guide.

I have no idea what plasmon signal is, so I think about it as a train. Then, plasmon guide acts as rails, plurality of signals as a traffic light, and the waveguide as an electric wire that runs along the rails toward the traffic light. That's all.

The whole patent is a great illustration of how people keep reinventing the railway system even when they think they invent some fancy new technology.

On the system level, the key to understanding a patent is to figure out which element plays the role of Payload. In this case it's "plasmon signal".

A small step for a man

Potentially, a huge step forward in development of technology for delivering nano-drugs:

Nanoparticles able to make basic decisions about whether to release their contents offer the prospect of delivering drugs exactly when and where they are needed, say chemists.

Their particles only respond to two distinct and simultaneous stimuli, acting like an "AND" computer logic gate that only produces an output signal if it receives two input signals.

From a system perspective, this technology adds the Control component, which makes the system complete. Huge.

Scientists distinguish between "splitters" and "lumpers," between those who favor fine-grained distinctions and those who tend to put entities together into broad categories.
For the most part, we are lumpers. Our minds have evolved to put things into categories and ignore or downplay what makes these things distinct.
Why does the mind work this way?
We lump the world into categories so that we can learn. When we encounter something new, it is not entirely new; we know what to expect of it and how to act toward it.
Someone without the right concepts might well starve to death surrounded by tomatoes, "because he or she has never seen those particular tomatoes before and so doesn't know what to do with them." Decartes' Baby. p.39-41.

Flexible thinking techniques allow us to be both, splitters and lumpers, depending on the problem at hand. They provide guidance on how to split and how to lump. For example, lumping iPhone with phones would cause us lose sight of its ability to run thousands of applications, including voice-based ones. On the other hand, splitting it from phones creates, at least initially, a problem for consumers, who might think that having a powerful mobile computer with thousands of potential applications on it would be an overkill for making simple phone calls.

If you are into it.

From Explaining Creativity (2006), by Keith Sawyer:

Many of these [creativity] studies found that the most important characteristic of creative people is an almost aesthetic ability to recognize a good problem in their domain. They know how to ask the right questions. That’s why highly creative people tend to be creative in one specific domain: it takes a lot of experience, knowledge, and training to be able to identify good problems. p. 47.

That's why I strongly emphasize search for high-value problems in all my courses and invention workshops. The Reverse Brainstorm, the Three Magicians, the 9-screen view, the 10X Diagram, the 5-element analysis - all these tools are necessary for accomplishing what creative people have to do: recognize a good problem. Furthermore, these tools allow you to go beyond the basic creative ability and recognize a good problem outside of your domain of expertise.

Of course, only if you are into it.

A recent research paper describes links between creativity and problem-finding skills:

Problem finding is vital to problem solving. It is how one defines a potential predicament. In one example, Getzels (1975) described a pair of people who get separate flat tires while driving through the countryside. The first person notices that he does not have a jack and attempts to find one. The second frames the problem as how to lift the car, and thereby solves the problem faster. Problem finding includes the questions people ask before they solve the problem. Problem finding is not only utilized in obvious problem solving situations; artists who are good at problem finding have their artwork rated as more original, and many become more successful (Csikszentmihalyi & Getzels, 1988). Problem  construction, a subprocess of problem finding, has also been shown to be positively associated with problem solving originality and quality (Mumford, Reiter-Palmon,& Redmond, 1994).
Problem finding, itself, is not a single process. It can be broken down to four separate, but related, skills: problem identification or detection, problem definition, problem expression, and problem construction (Runco, 1994a; Runco &; Nemiro, 1994). It has even been described as a post-formal operations stage of cognitive development (e.g., Arlin, 1975, 1989).

References:
Paletz, Susannah B. F. and Peng, Kaiping(2009)'Problem Finding and Contradiction: Examining the Relationship Between Naive Dialectical Thinking, Ethnicity, and Creativity',Creativity Research Journal,21:2,139 — 151.

I started listening to UC Berkeley podcast CS 162 Operating Systems and Systems Programming with John Kubiatowicz as it star performer, and was immediately rewarded with phrases like "taming complexity" and "scalable madness". He is absolutely right - programming billions of transistors, living and breathing electrons at astronomical speeds, is a huge control challenge. Operating system presents a software engineer with a "virtual machine" that is orders of magnitude simpler, and therefore much easier to deal with.
In a similar fashion we give students, inventors, and innovators a five-element system model, i.e. a technology-independent virtual machine, that they can play with without knowing all the gory details about mechanics, psychology, or biology of the underlying elements. Like a child, who accepts the magical nature of things around her, a person working with a model frees her mind to focus on her creative transformation impulse.

Should use it as an example in the five element analysis chapter