Showing posts with label synthesis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label synthesis. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Facebook patents recommendations from contact lists

The USPTO awarded Facebook US Patent 9,338,250, titled "Associating received contact information with user profiles stored by a social networking system" (inventors: Michael Hudack, Christopher Turitzin; Edward Baker; Hao Xu). The patent covers the now standard feature in many social networks, both consumer and professional, where the system finds potential connections in your imported contact list and recommends adding a person who is currently not in your network.


From an innovation methodology perspective, the invention solves a typical problem that arises when users need to be migrated from an old technology space into a new one. In the System model, an effective solution improves scalability, by dramatically reducing costs of adding Sources and Tools during the synthesis phase.

tags: facebook, innovation, invention, patent, social, networking, synthesis

Friday, January 02, 2015

Scalable Innovation (BUS 134) - Quiz, Session 3-1

This quarter I'll be teaching Scalable Innovation (BUS 134) - a new course at Stanford University Continuing Studies. One of the key topics for the course is innovation timing. That is, timing is everything; therefore, in order not to be too early or too late with the idea, the innovator has to be able to at least find a strong, valid signal in the avalanche of noise about the future. Here's an exercise I'm considering for my students.

Read wikipedia about Electronic Sports and consider the chart below (click to enlarge):

Does "Electronic Sports" represent a major technology/market innovation event? Why? Does the curve above represent the beginning of a long-term growth or is it just another hype cycle? If Electronic Sports is the wave of the future, who are the existing industry players that are going to benefit from it the most? What new system elements and interfaces still need to be invented?

tags: innovation, s-curve, gaming, synthesis

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Google + Nest GSV = the Web is Dead

Google announced that they are buying Nest GSV, the smart thermostat company, for $3.2B. The acquisition extends Google's push into the Internet of Things (IoT), including robotics, automatic cars, etc. Gartner's 2013 Hype Cycle report puts IoT firmly at the top of the hype chart.

Recently, Cisco added to the hype with an estimate for the IoT market of $19T by 2020. Since Google missed badly on Social Networking, the company is eager not to miss on the next big thing. With the web going away (Scalable Innovation, Chapter 20), Google needs new massive sources of data streams to process; otherwise, all their data-crunching technology could become worthless. The Internet of Things seems to fit the requirements. Although the valuations are of hype-size proportions, today's web advertisement (search) produces enough cash to finance the future S-curve.

When I worked in research on IoT concepts in the early 2000s, it was too early. We did get a number of good patents, e.g. US7,620,703, US7,257,839, US7,092,861, US7,069,345, US6,838,986, out of that work, but the inventions didn't become mass-market innovations back then. Even today, it's still too early for the mass market. Interesting questions to consider would be, What does it mean to be too early? What problems do we need to solve, so that an innovation in this particular technology market becomes real?


tags: invention, innovation, hype, google, system, synthesis, web

Thursday, January 02, 2014

MOOCs: what can we learn from baseball scouts?

It turns out that one of the biggest problems with MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) is low completion rate. Sebastian Thrun, the founder of Udacity, decided to "pivot" away from MOOCs because on average only 4 percent of participants completed courses offered by his company. Although the courses reach hundreds of thousands of people, the end result is nowhere near inflated expectations about a revolution in education.

Motivation to learn seems to be the key to succeed online. I think MOOCs will become an effective tool for finding talented and motivated individuals, rather than educating masses around the world. Ideally, MOOCs should replace rote tests like SATs because to a prospective educator and/or employer a successfully completed online course provides a strong indicator of the student's intellectual and social skills, especially when creativity and entrepreneurship are required.

From this perspective, I find Nate Silver's chapter (The Signal and the Noise. 2013) about baseball scouting particularly insightful. Here's a list of five abilities that predict success at the major-league level:

1. Preparedness and Work Ethic. Baseball is unlike almost all other professional sports in that games are played six or seven times a week. A baseball player has to be ready to perform at a professional level every day.
2. Concentration and Focus. this category specifically concerns the manner in which a player conducts himself during the course of the game.
3. Competitiveness and Self-Confidence. “Is there a desire to succeed to the degree that there’s a failure mechanism kicking in? Is there a fear of failure? Is the desire to succeed significant enough to overcome the fear of failure?”
4. Stress Management and Humility. In baseball even the best hitters fail a majority of the time. The ability to cope with this failure requires a short memory and a certain sense of humor.
5. Adaptiveness and Learning Ability. How successfully is the player able to process new information during a game? Listen to advice from his coaches? How does he adapt when his life situation changes?

I wonder if we can create scouting reports on entrepreneurs, e.g. by using Angel List or other new social media tools. Like major league baseball, innovation and entrepreneurship is a high-stake game played every day. Creating a winning team is one of the most important tasks for a startup CEO and people who fund his/her company.


tags: innovation, education, detection, control, synthesis, system

Monday, December 09, 2013

Steve Jobs vs Elon Musk: an innovation perspective

Some raw notes for the BUS/SCI 117 course and book draft:

1. Many in the media and VC community say that Elon Musk is "Steve Jobs today."
-- 1.1. Based, e.g., on the marketing flair he presents his products.
2. How can we evaluate these statements?
3. Let's take an "innovation impact" point of view
4. Steve Jobs was instrumental in 3 technology/business revolutions
-- 4.1. PC (Apple)
-- 4.2. computer animation (Pixar)
-- 4.3. smartphone and connected media (Apple)
5. Elon Musk  was instrumental in 3 technology/business developments
-- 5.1. Person-to-person electronic payments (PayPal)
-- 5.2. Private space vehicle operations (Space X)
-- 5.3. Luxury electric car (Tesla Motors)
6. Steve Jobs' innovations initiated major changes in lives of billions of people (the "New World" test)
-- 6.1. Applications of Moore's, Nielsen's, Kryder's laws
-- 6.2. System-level impact: solving a Synthesis problem for new industries
----6.2.1. Exponential growth of devices, apps, services, communications
7. Elon Musk's innovations target(ed) lucrative niches
-- 7.1. long-distance money transactions between untrusted market participants
---- 7.1.1. One element of a much larger system (Deontic Payload)
-- 7.2. US government exit from space exploration
-- 7.3. Green-minded segment of the "conspicuous consumption" population
---- 7.3.1. Compare to Hummer, BMW, Nissan Leaf and Toyota Prius
8. Conclusion: Elon Musk's innovations are not even close to those of Steve Jobs' (yet)
-- 8.1. Has a chance if somebody develops an energy element (e.g. battery) with exponential growth of energy density or an extremely low resistance material (superconductor at high T)

tags: innovation, system, creativity, synthesis, deontic, payload, battle

Just for fun, a highly superficial visual comparison bw EM and SJ at businessinsider.com


Monday, July 23, 2012

The Creative (self-)Destruction of Nokia.

(WSJ. July 18, 2012). More than seven years before Apple Inc. AAPL -0.08% rolled out the iPhone, the Nokia team showed a phone with a color touch screen set above a single button. The device was shown locating a restaurant, playing a racing game and ordering lipstick. In the late 1990s, Nokia secretly developed another alluring product: a tablet computer with a wireless connection and touch screen—all features today of the hot-selling Apple iPad.
"Oh my God," Mr. Nuovo says as he clicks through his old slides. "We had it completely nailed."
Consumers never saw either device. The gadgets were casualties of a corporate culture that lavished funds on research but squandered opportunities to bring the innovations it produced to market.

People tend to forget that the iPhone, with its beautiful design, was just a part of a new system Steve Jobs and his team at Apple put together with help from Google, ATT, Hollywood, Samsung, and the app development community. Furthermore, to succeed in the early stages (Synthesis), an innovation doesn't have to be perfect,
Nokia engineers' "tear-down" reports, according to people who saw them, emphasized that the iPhone was expensive to manufacture and only worked on second-generation networks—primitive compared with Nokia's 3G technology. One report noted that the iPhone didn't come close to passing Nokia's rigorous "drop test," in which a phone is dropped five feet onto concrete from a variety of angles. 
Not surprisingly, Nokia's patent portfolio is worth more than its business operations.

tags: mobile, system, synthesis, s-curve, evolution

Monday, July 16, 2012

Google vs Microsoft: the office battle.

WSJ (June 16, 2012) on the competition in the Office space.
Microsoft also is lavishing attention on businesses that have weighed switching to Google Apps, a corporate-software bundle that includes versions of Gmail and the Google Docs document, spreadsheet and presentation software.


To counter Google's momentum, Microsoft is using a "Google Compete" team, whose mission is to keep Office customers from buying Google Apps.

In a May report, Gartner said Google is winning one-third to half of new corporate users that are paying for Web-based software. In 2009, Gartner predicted that Microsoft by now would be outselling Google Apps by at least 4 to 1.
Microsoft was making so much money on Office that they fell asleep at the steering wheel and missed the beginning of the transition to a new S-curve.

 tags: s-curve, tool, payload, synthesis

GE's Novel Battery to Bolster the Grid

Slowly but surely, the green tech revolution is beginning to bear fruit in places where electric grid cannot support 24/7 access to power.
(7/12/12) MIT Technology Review:

Yesterday GE officially opened a sprawling, $100 million battery factory in Schenectady, New York. The factory, which will eventually employ 450 people, makes a new kind of battery—based on sodium and nickel. GE says the technology, which is more durable and charges more quickly than lead-acid batteries, will make off-grid power generation more efficient and help utilities integrate power from a wide range of sources, including intermittent ones such as wind and solar power.

The first applications will be somewhat less ambitious. GE's first customer is a South African company—Megatron Federal—that will use the batteries to power cell-phone towers in Nigeria. Those are usually powered by diesel generators. Pairing the generators with the new batteries can help them run far more efficiently. "You save 53 percent on fuel, 45 percent on maintenance, and about 60 percent on diesel generator replacements," says Brandon Harcus, division manager for telecommunications for Megatron Federal. "For our Nigerian application, the savings are substantial, about $1.3 million over 20 years per cell tower. You use a lot less fuel and produce a lot less carbon."  
tags: control, storage, energy, distribution, synthesis, 3x3

Sunday, July 01, 2012

Same technology, different S-curves, different results.

Using solar power in areas where there's no power grid, e.g. in Asia and Africa, looks a lot more promising and cost-effective than introducing the same solar power technology in mature energy systems in the US or Europe.
(MIT Tech Review, June 8, 2012). Diesel is a major source of power in south Asia and Africa, where many areas lack access to the grid and frequent blackouts prompt those who can afford it to install backup generators. These markets could help a solar industry that’s struggling with low profit margins due to an oversupply of panels. In turn, the lower prices for solar power could speed up deployment in poor countries by providing a more economical alternative to diesel-powered pumps and generators, and a much faster path to electrification than waiting for grid infrastructure.

One of the first economical applications for solar is replacing diesel-powered irrigation pumps, Gopalan says. These pumps don’t have to run at night, so batteries aren’t needed, keeping costs down. “The total available market in India alone is 15 to 20 gigawatts, and irrigation pumping is a massive application in all of Asia and Africa,” he says. For perspective, the current total installed capacity for solar power is 65 gigawatts, according to the management consulting firm McKinsey.

In Asia and Africa, introduction of the technology does not depend on infrastructure investment. Furthermore, as recent power outages in the US show, the bottleneck in the energy system is not power generation, but power distribution.  Also, Germany's introduction of "green" energy involves massive investment into new distribution lines. As a result, adoption of the same technology in different areas produces dramatically different economic outcomes.

This difference is obvious to me on the personal level as well. Every day I walk my dog by our local high school. Two years ago it used a government subsidy and a local bond to install solar panels to cover its parking lot. Paradoxically, during the summer months when the largest amount of solar power is generated, the school is not in session. Therefore, the power cannot be used locally and has to be distributed through the grid - with losses - to remote users. In other words, there's a fundamental mismatch between the power generation and the power use patterns.

In contrast, the MIT article cited above talks about a solar panel installation in Asia that feeds irrigation pumps. Because the pumps have to work the hardest when there's a lot of sunshine, solar-based power generation and power consumption by the pumps are almost perfectly synchronized. Therefore, there's no need to store or distribute the power - with inevitable losses - to other users.

As we can see, economic efficiency of the same technology is quite different in these two cases. Here in California, we face a trade-off: the "greener" the energy, the more expensive it is. Opposite to that, in Asia the trade-off is broken: the "greener" the energy, the cheaper it is. Clearly, the technology's upside is much greater there.

tags: s-curve, synthesis, growth, distribution, infrastructure, niche construction, 4q diagram, market


Sunday, June 24, 2012

Germany's emerging electric power infrastructure.

MIT Tech Review discusses Energiewende - an energy revolution designed to put Germany firmly into "green."
This switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy is the most ambitious ever attempted by a heavily industrialized country: it aims to cut greenhouse-gas emissions 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020, and 80 percent by midcentury.



To help replace nuclear power, they are racing to install huge wind farms far off the German coast in the North Sea; new transmission infrastructure is being planned to get the power to Germany's industrial regions. At the same time, companies such as Siemens, GE, and RWE, Germany's biggest power producer, are looking for ways to keep factories humming during lulls in wind and solar power. They are searching for cheap, large-scale forms of power storage and hoping that computers can intelligently coordinate what could be millions of distributed power sources.

Until large-scale, cheap storage is available, gas power plants, which can start up quickly and efficiently, will be the most practical way to cope with these situations. But there's little incentive to build such plants. Owners of gas plants meant to meet peak power needs can no longer count on running for a certain number of hours, since the need will no longer fall on predictable workday afternoons but come and go with the sun and wind.


Now energy companies are planning to install 10,000 megawatts of wind power as far offshore as 160 kilometers, at depths of up to 70 meters. Several 10,000- to 20,000-ton offshore substations will convert gigawatts of AC output to DC, which can span such distances without large energy losses.

Various economic think tanks predict that the country will spend somewhere between $125 billion and $250 billion on infrastructure expansion and subsidies in the next eight years—between 3.5 and 7 percent of Germany's 2011 GDP.

This is a much better designed economic stimulus than we've seen in the US over the last three years. It invests into a future infrastructure built with new electric grid technologies. Even if the project fails it has a chance to create a industrial base for an export economy that targets fast growing Asian countries.

tags: distribution, control, synthesis, build-up, energy, infrastructure


Saturday, June 02, 2012

Zumable User Interfaces (ZUIs)

The Economist (Jun 2nd 2012. Technology Quarterly Q2, 2012): the prophets of zoom:

Zoomable user interfaces (ZUIs), as they are known, are arriving on the coat-tails of touch-screen gadgets such as the iPhone that have popularised zooming to magnify graphics. With ZUIs (pronounced zoo-ees), information need not be chopped up to fit on uniformly sized slides. Instead, text, images and even video sit on a single, limitless surface and can be viewed at whatever size makes most sense—up close for details, or zoomed out for the big picture.

The system-level transition I was predicting two years ago is beginning to happen.

tags: trend, payload, tool, system, model, example, interface, synthesis

Friday, May 25, 2012

Winner-takes-all market in tablets (so far)

CNet reports on web traffic data originating from tablets. Because Apple is such a dominant force, the chart they refer to looks like this:


Note that Apple's iPad is not in the picture at all. When you add the iPad the chart looks like this:


Data Source: Chitika.

tags: market, domination, tool, synthesis, 4q diagram, business, model

Friday, February 10, 2012

The killer device.

For the first time, web traffic from Apple's mobile devices exceeded that of Macs. One revolution Steve Jobs started thirty years ago is coming to an end. The other one is just getting under way.


Feb 10, 2012. VBeat -- In the first quarter of 2012, for instance, Apple sold 37.04 million iPhones, 15.43 million iPads, and just 5.2 million Macs.

It’s not quite the death of the desktop, but mobile devices are gaining ground on their traditional brethren, at least within the Apple-centric world.
“There is cannibalization, clearly, of the Mac by the iPad, but we continue to believe that there’s much more cannibalization of Windows PCs by the iPad,” Cook said

tags: mobile, s-curve, web, tool, information, synthesis

Sunday, January 15, 2012

The fundamental flaw of the current patent system.

The fundamental flaw of the current patent system is that it assumes that invention is reductionist rather than holistic in nature.

The system works ok for pharma because reductionism is difficult to apply there. That is, chemical formula of a particular drug cannot be reduced to the sum of its parts. In other words, an H2O (water) molecule is not the sum of two atoms of hydrogen and one atom of oxygen.  Rather, everybody "naturally" understands that water is a different substance. Therefore, if you have a patent on hydrogen you can't sue the inventor of water.

In information technologies reductionism rules. People think that iPhone is successful because it has the mutli-touch screen as its part. (This is due to the causal thinking bias explained in Kahneman's book.) The public discounts the fact that multi-touch was available before iPhone but was not successful commercially. iPhone made multi-touch a successful component because consumers want phones with a multi-touch screen.

Steve Jobs and his team created a new "water" - the iPhone - that is a totally different "substance" than its parts. But the patent system treats multi-touch and other technological pieces of iPhone as more important than the iPhone itself. Thus, we have patent wars where those who invented the new "water", those who stole it and added flavors, and those who knew how to make hydrogen, are treated the same.

Understanding this system-level flaw helps us (me) put together  good IP/invention strategies. At a certain point the bug becomes a feature.

tags: patents, system, synthesis

Sunday, November 13, 2011

ARM vs Intel

(November 11, 2011. Bloomberg):
Intel (INTC) focused its efforts on what’s called the “clock speed” of CPUs, rapidly increasing the performance of computer chips to handle desktop operating systems and processor-intensive applications better. Less thought was given to reducing the power consumption requirements of these chips.

...ARM chips have used a “bottom up” [low-power] approach. Early ARM chips weren’t capable of running complex software but could run for days between charges. Once the power requirements of the silicon were effectively managed, ARM chips began to ramp up performance, most recently with quad-core chips that can offer 16 hours of high-definition playback on a tablet.
The companies' IP models are also very different. Intel develops and makes its chips, maintaining a quasi monopoly in the high-performance PC and server markets. ARM designs chips and licenses its architecture to third party manufacturers.

ARM's IP model is better suited for early stages of the product innovation process, when companies adopt trial-and-error market strategies (Synthesis?).

An IP strategy map would probably be a good idea to reflect the contrast, but I don't quite know what its dimensions should be.

tags: technology, battle, information, s-curve, product, process, mobile

Saturday, November 05, 2011

Back to the future of the job creation debate.

November 3, 2011. NYT's Adam Davidson asks, somewhat rhetorically: "Can Anyone Really Create Jobs?"

November 2, 2011. VBeat's  Jolie O'Dell publishes an interview with Leah Busque, founder of TaskRabbit, who created thousands of jobs for total strangers.

@Adam Davidson: Yes, some people can!



Task Rabbit from Venturebeat on Vimeo.

For those of you who can read Russian here's an old joke:
Однажды Чукча принес в редакцию свой роман. Редактор прочитал и говорит:
— Понимаете ли, слабовато… Вам бы классику читать. Вы Тургенева читали? А Толстого? А Достоевского?…
— Однако, нет. Чукча — не читатель, Чукча — писатель.

tags: information, economics, synthesis, control, business, model

Friday, October 28, 2011

Green technology and political protest.

This is a real-life test for green technology. Will solar energy save the political action?
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Anti-Wall Street protesters' plans to camp in a New York park throughout the city's harsh winter were dealt a blow on Friday when the fire department confiscated generators and fuel because they posed a danger.
But Occupy Wall Street spokesman Ed Needham said the removal of the generators was "certainly a directed effort to thwart our situation." He said solar powered generators were being brought in to replace those taken.
Facebook and Twitter proved that social networking technology can help people organize in a totally new different way. Now, it's the green tech's turn to prove itself. If it works out, this might become the Occupy's movement's greatest contribution to the world.

tags: energy, synthesis, s-curve, problem

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

The 21st century Facebook Utopia.

Can you imagine a country of 800 million people successfully policed by just some 30 of them? No courts, no jails, no lawyers involved. For comparison, the United Nations recommends a minimum police strength of 222 per 100,000 people.
(26 October 2011. New Scientist. )Known as the Facebook Immune System (FIS), the massive defense network appears to be successful: numbers released by the company this week show that less than 1 per cent of users experience spam.
The system is overseen by a team of 30 people, but it can learn in real time and is able to take action without checking with a human supervisor.
It took just three years for FIS to evolve from basic beginnings into an all-seeing set of algorithms that monitors every photo posted to the network, every status update– indeed, every click made by every one of the 800 million users. There are more than 25 billion of these "read and write actions" every day. At peak activity the system checks 650,000 actions a second.
The only network bigger, Larus suspects, is the web itself. That makes Facebook's defense system one of the largest in existence.
 The efficiencies of the virtual world are totally unprecedented in human history. The Matrix is turning out to be a very cool place.

tags: virtual, synthesis, infrastructure, control, security, facebook,10x

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Russell Grandinetti, an Amazon’s executive (NYT 10/16/2011):
...the landscape was in some ways changing for the first time since Gutenberg invented the modern book nearly 600 years ago. “The only really necessary people in the publishing process now are the writer and reader,” he said. “Everyone who stands between those two has both risk and opportunity.”

It's more like early newspapers, rather than books. For example, Benjamin Franklin successfully published and edited his own newspaper where he wrote too, under multiple pen names. It worked in a relatively small town, but when newspapers wanted to expand their circulations they created large publishing houses.

Monday, October 17, 2011

An Android problem: too much innovation.

A long-time Android user complains about the downside of owning a Google-powered device:
[Operating System] fragmentation alone is plenty reason to abandon the platform--I'm not buying a new phone every year just to keep up, and I'm tired of the guessing game and bullet lists about what's coming when and to whom, and what apps support what version of the OS, down to the second decimal place.

Smartphones are complicated devices, running complicated software. Android is further complicated by, as I mentioned, fragmentation, and also the introduction of wild-card apps from multiple sources. ... when something goes wrong with my phone, I want someone to call, and Verizon (or AT&T, or T-Mobile, or Sprint) isn't in the business or habit of supporting software. The manufacturers seem well out of their depth, in terms of support. And Google is no help at all. 

I've heard similar complaints from other users, who are not into the geekery of owning the latest and greatest technology. By restricting choices and keeping the complexity of devices and applications down, Apple is helping people to move into the brave new world of the new Internet.



tags: innovation, control, synthesis, system, s-curve