Stanford CSP, BUS 152 - Innovation Timing. Session 2, Quiz 1

In a recent article, MIT Technology Review described exciting new developments in AI-enabled robotics:

This robot, controlled by software from a San Francisco–based company called Osaro, is smarter than any you’ve seen before. The software has taught it to pick and place chicken in about five seconds. Within the year, Osaro expects its robots to find work in a Japanese food factory.

Industrial robots have been largely untouched by the latest advances in artificial intelligence. Over the last five or so years, AI software has become adept at identifying images, winning board games, and responding to a person’s voice with virtually no human intervention. It can even teach itself new abilities, given enough time to practice. All this while AI’s hardware cousins, robots, struggle to open a door or pick up an apple.

That is about to change. The AI software that controls Osaro’s robot lets it identify the objects in front of it, study how they behave when poked, pushed, and grasped, and then decide how to handle them. Like other AI algorithms, it learns from experience. Using an off-the-shelf camera combined with machine-learning software on a powerful computer nearby, it figures out how to grasp things effectively. With enough trial and error, the arm can learn how to grasp just about anything it might come across.

Moreover, investors show strong interest in the field as well. For example, this week's Bloomberg article noted creation of new ETFs dedicated to Robotics and Artificial Intelligence.

Quiz:
1. In your opinion, does the field of new AI-enabled robots follow the process generally described as Hype Cycle? Explain briefly.
1a. If yes, what is the current stage of the technology relative to the cycle?
1b. If no, how do you explain major disadvantages of using the technology relative to more traditional robots?
1c. How many years would it take for AI-enabled robots to become mainstream?

2. Where would you place the technology on the S-curve and Adopter Distribution chart as of today? Explain briefly.

Stanford CSP BUS 74. Session 3 Quiz 1.

Background:

MIT Technology Review lists face-detecting systems as one of the top 10 innovations for 2017.

The technology figures to take off in China first because of the country’s attitudes toward surveillance and privacy. Unlike, say, the United States, China has a large centralized database of ID card photos. During my time at Face++, I saw how local governments are using its software to identify suspected criminals in video from surveillance cameras, which are omnipresent in the country. This is especially impressive—albeit somewhat dystopian—because the footage analyzed is far from perfect, and because mug shots or other images on file may be several years old.

Facial recognition has existed for decades, but only now is it accurate enough to be used in secure financial transactions. The new versions use deep learning, an artificial-intelligence technique that is especially effective for image recognition because it makes a computer zero in on the facial features that will most reliably identify a person.

Quiz:

Read the entire article and answer the following questions:
1. Does facial recognition covered in the article represent a new technology? Explain briefly.
2. Will the technology become important outside of China? Explain briefly:
2.1. If the answer is yes, what markets/applications will benefit from it?
2.2. If the answer is no, what barriers will prevent its diffusion?

Stanford CSP BUS 74, Session 2 Quiz 3

Questions

1. Watch the video (8min) and identify 2-3 trade-offs The Three Little Pigs make in the story.
2. Does any of the major technology breakthroughs discussed during Session 2 address one of the trade-offs? Explain your reasoning.

tags: bus74, quiz, video, trade-off, stanford

Stanford CSP BUS 74, Session 2 Quiz 2

Background
Mood plays an important role in motivating people for a broad range of everyday activities, both useful and harmful. In a recent study, Stanford researchers discovered a mood-related trade-off between people's short-term and long-term goals:

We tracked the activities and moods of over 28,000 people in real time and demonstrated that people seek mood-enhancing activities when they feel bad and unpleasant activities when they feel good. These findings clarify how emotions shape behavior and may explain how humans trade off short-term happiness for long-term welfare. Overcoming such trade-offs might be critical for our personal well-being and our survival as a species.

Quiz
Read the study (at least the abstract and intro) to understand the trade-off.

1. Use your imagination to propose 2-3 ways to break the trade-off in order to become happier and more productive in your personal and professional life.

2. Assume that the trade-off is broken by a new, yet to be developed technology. Name 2-3 industries and/or businesses that would benefit the most from the breakthrough.

Stanford CSP BUS 74. Session 1, Quiz 2.

Background:

In today's (June 29, 2017) Science News article, Matthew Hudson describes new carbon nanotube transistors created by IBM researchers:

For decades, computing speed has increased as silicon transistors have shrunk, but they’re currently near their size limits. So scientists have been experimenting with carbon nanotubes, rolled-up sheets of carbon atoms just 1 nanometer, or a billionth of a meter, in diameter.

But difficulties working with the material have meant that, for optimal performance, nanotube transistors have to be even larger than current silicon transistors, which are about 100 nanometers across. To cut that number down, a team of scientists used a new technique to build the contacts that draw current into and out of the carbon nanotube transistor. They constructed the contacts out of molybdenum, which can bond directly to the ends of the nanotubes, making them smaller. They also added cobalt so the bonding could take place at a lower temperature, allowing them to shrink the gap between the contacts.

Electrical tests showed their new transistors to be faster and more efficient than ones made of silicon. Silicon Valley may soon have to make way for Carbon Valley.

Questions:


1. In your opinion, does the new technique create potential for incremental innovation, radical innovation, or both? Explain briefly.
2. Using Backcasting, describe key features of a radically new device that can be built 10-15 years from now, using sub-nanometer transistors.

Stanford CSP BUS 74, Principles of Invention and Innovation. Session 1, Quiz 1

Background:


The Lancet, one of the world's best known medical journals, recently reported that the obesity epidemic has reached a global scale.

If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. ...High body-mass index (BMI) is an important risk factor for cardiovascular and kidney diseases, diabetes, some cancers, and musculoskeletal disorders.

To a significant degree, the problem is caused by the so-called "Western Diet" that is rich in added sugar and processed carbohydrates. Research shows that the diet negatively affects the microbiota of a healthy person and often leads to chronic diseases.

The problem has a seemingly simple preventive solution: a massive switch to high-fiber diets with emphasis on vegetable consumption. Unfortunately, human food habits are notoriously difficult to change. Moreover, people often think that healthy food doesn't taste good. For example, in an experiment conducted by Stanford University researchers "labeling vegetables with indulgent descriptions led more diners to choose vegetables and resulted in a greater mass of vegetables served per day. Diners chose vegetables with indulgent labeling 25 percent more than basic labeling, 35 percent more than healthy positive and 41 percent more than healthy restrictive."

Questions:
In your opinion,
1. How would an Ideal healthcare system would address the obesity epidemic?
2. How would an Ideal education system would address the epidemic?
3. How would an Ideal food and beverage industry would address the epidemic?
4. How would an Ideal tax system would address the epidemic?
5. How would an Ideal advertisement system would address the epidemic?

Select at least one of the questions above and describe briefly top 3 features of your Ideal system.

Stanford CSP, BUS 152 - Session 5, Quiz 1

Background: A major shift in business and technology strategy (aka pivot) seems to be inevitable during the life time of both startups and large companies. The change requires the team to make critical decisions under conditions of uncertainty.



Please listen to the podcast above and answer the following Questions:

1. Why LoudCloud was too early to the market? What were the key decisions for LoudCloud/Opsware in executing a pivot?

2. Did Lytro develop a new technology? Please describe briefly its pivot in terms of the 4Q diagram covered during our Session 4 (Feb 13, 2017). Using the same terms, describe the team's original mistake.

3. (Optional). Imagine that you are the CEO of Twitter. Your user base and revenues are not growing fast enough to compete with Facebook and Snapchat. You have $1B and 2 years to execute a pivot. Describe your key decisions and reasoning behind them.

tags: bus152, quiz, 4q diagram,

Stanford CSP, BUS 152 - Innovation Timing. Session 4, Quiz 1

Background:

Recently, a number of technology companies introduced Augmented Reality headsets that enable users to overlay images from the real world with information generated by a computer, including text, video, graphics, etc. Microsoft HoloLens  is one of the most advanced projects in the field, backed by a major industry player. For example, in a 2016 TED Talk, Alex Kipman demonstrated a head-mounted 3D hologram computer that lets users interact with "magical objects" directly, which eliminates, among other things, the need for displays, keyboards, joysticks, and other typical computer accessories.

Please read the wikipedia article referenced above, watch the TED video, and answer the following questions:

1. Is HoloLens a new technology? Explain.

2. Imagine that it is year 2040. Do you see HoloLens-like devices dominating specific fields of human-computer interaction, e.g.

a) Education (certainly, highly likely, maybe, absolutely not). Explain.
b) Gaming (certainly, highly likely, maybe, absolutely not). Explain.
c) Construction and Industrial Services (certainly, highly likely, maybe, absolutely not). Explain.
d) Healthcare (certainly, highly likely, maybe, absolutely not). Explain.

3. (Optional) In your opinion, what are the top three bottlenecks that may prevent Augmented Reality devices, like HoloLens, from becoming widely popular among consumers during the next 3-5 years? Explain.

Stanford CSP, BUS 152 - Innovation Timing. Session 3, Quiz 1

Background: Over the last decade, AI-based technologies succeeded in solving various problems that before were considered impossible to solve using computational methods. In one recent example, Stanford researchers "have trained an algorithm to diagnose skin cancer." In another example, AI bot easily outplayed humans in poker.

The significance of the latter development is that the algorithm successfully handled a problem with imperfect information:

Poker requires reasoning and intelligence that has proven difficult for machines to imitate. It is fundamentally different from checkers, chess, or Go, because an opponent’s hand remains hidden from view during play. In games of “imperfect information,” it is enormously complicated to figure out the ideal strategy given every possible approach your opponent may be taking.

Given that innovation fundamentally involves decision-making with imperfect information, we may want to consider how AI will impact broader innovation processes in our society.

Questions:
1. Assume that AI decision-making services are widely available. In your opinion, which segments of the society will start using such services first: consumer or enterprise? Explain your reasoning and give approximate calendar time estimates for each segment.

2. Consider Kahneman's System 1 vs System 2 approach to human decision-making (e.g. as discussed during our Session 2). Will a wide adoption of AI services improve or worsen people's ability to use "System 2 thinking"? Explain.

3. In your opinion, will AI-based decision-making services affect the overall timing of innovation diffusion in social systems (see Session 1 lecture notes), e.g. by making S-curves more gradual, more steep, or leave them unchanged? Explain.

Stanford CSP. BUS 152 - Innovation Timing. Session 2, Quiz 1

Background

The public's interest in Bitcoin rose sharply in 2013-14.

For example, on January 21, 2014, in a NYT article titled "Why Bitcoin Matters", Marc Andressen wrote:

Bitcoin gives us, for the first time, a way for one Internet user to transfer a unique piece of digital property to another Internet user, such that the transfer is guaranteed to be safe and secure, everyone knows that the transfer has taken place, and nobody can challenge the legitimacy of the transfer. The consequences of this breakthrough are hard to overstate.

Despite its great promise, this major breakthrough has not materialized yet. Nevertheless, the Google Trends chart above shows a noticeable uptick in Bitcoin-related interest in 2017. For example. a recent post on CloudTech by James Bourne titled "Blockchain beyond Bitcoin: Assessing the enterprise use cases" states that the technology "has serious potential to disrupt a multitude of industries." Also, Cade Metz in a January 6, 2017, Wired article titled "Bitcoin Will Never Be a Currency—It’s Something Way Weirder" reports on the general sentiment about Bitcoin, "Bitcoin is not something the average person will ever use to buy and sell stuff... It’s not something that will improve what the world has, such as money or stock. It’s something that will give the world stuff it has never had."

Quiz:
1. In your opinion, does Bitcoin follow the process generally described as Hype Cycle? Explain briefly.
1a. If yes, what is the current stage of the technology relative to the cycle?
1b. If no, how do you explain the 2014 peak and the significant investments VC funds put into Bitcoin-related startups?

2. Is the 2017 Bitcoin (and related technology) comeback for real? Where would you place the technology on the S-curve and Adopter Distribution chart as of today? Explain briefly.

Stanford CSP. Business 152. Innovation Timing. Session 1, Quiz 3

Background: Sequoia Capital, one of the leading Silicon Valley venture capital firms, typically asks its prospective portfolio startups "Why Now?"

Quiz:
1. List at least 10 major innovations that are either happening now or about to happen within the next 3-5 years.
2. Assume that you are going to participate in one or two of those innovations.
3. Pick your role, e.g. startup founder, employee, corporate CEO/CTO, investor, scientist, student, journalist, president, non-profit, etc.
4. Given your role, select two innovation opportunities that you want to start working on now.
5. Explain "Why now?"

tags: stanford, quiz, innovation

Stanford CSP 74 Principles of Invention and Innovation (BUS 74). Session 2 Quiz 1

In a recent MIT Technology Review article, Antonio Regaldo describes a new genetic engineering approach that promises to eliminate malaria:

Malaria kills half a million people each year, mostly children in tropical Africa. The price tag for eradicating the disease is estimated at more than $100 billion over 15 years. To do it, you’d need bed nets for everyone, tens of thousands of crates of antimalaria drugs, and millions of gallons of insecticides.
...
A gene drive is an artificial “selfish” gene capable of forcing itself into 99 percent of an organism’s offspring instead of the usual half. And because this particular gene causes female mosquitoes to become sterile, within about 11 generations—or in about one year—its spread would doom any population of mosquitoes. If released into the field, the technology could bring about the extinction of malaria mosquitoes and, possibly, cease transmission of the disease.

Question 1: Using the "Divergeng-Exploratory-Convergent" thinking technique,
a) list lots of benefits and problems that the new approach creates;
b) create an explicit criteria for selecting top benefits and problems;
b) according to your criteria, what are the most important short- and long-term benefits/problems (at least one each)?

Question 2 (optional): What dilemma did the researchers solve, while trying to create their genetically modified mosquito?

Question 3 (optional): What's the difference between system levels that the existing and the new malaria solutions target?

Stanford CSP Scalable Innovation (BUS 134) Session 3, Quiz 1

Autonomous vehicles (formerly known as self-driving cars) can drive safely at fast speeds and maintain short distances between cars, reducing road congestion. Furthermore, electric autonomous vehicles can accelerate and maintain high speeds without dramatically increasing pollution.

On the other hand, human drivers are required to drive under the speed limit and maintain a certain, relatively large, distance between cars, e.g. the Two-Second Rule. Arguably, introduction of modern breaking technologies doesn't reduce the rate of accidents significantly.*

As a result, large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicles creates a situation that involves multiple trade-offs.

Questions:

1. List trade-offs relevant to the situation (use divergent thinking). Select one (use convergent thinking) that you anticipate to become the most important in the future. What selection criteria did you apply?
2. Propose solutions that can break the trade-off: realistic, futuristic, fantastic, etc.
3. (Bonus 1 - optional). What technology and business opportunities you can create by breaking the trade-off?
4. (Bonus 2 - optional) Using analogical thinking, what solutions from the history of the automobile can you re-use to solve the current situation?

* See, for example, Foolproof: How Safety Can Be Dangerous and How Danger Makes Us Safe, by Greg Ip, 2015.

Stanford CSP. Scalable Innovation (BUS 134) Session 2 Quiz 1

Go is a board game invented 2,500 years ago in China. According to a recent MIT Technology Review (MTR) article, "Mastering Go ... requires endless practice, as well as a finely tuned knack of recognizing subtle patterns in the arrangement of the pieces spread across the board."

Experts have long considered Go as one of the most complex and intuitive human games ever created, much more complex than, e.g. chess or poker. Nevertheless, Google AI researchers have developed a software that "beat the European Go champion, Fan Hui, five games to zero. And this March it will take on one of the world’s best players, Lee Sedol, in a tournament to be held in Seoul, South Korea."

Read the MTR article mentioned above and consider/answer the following questions:

1. Does Alpha Go represent a major technology innovation? Explain your reasoning.

2. If combining two or more deep learning networks, as described in the article, is the wave of the future, what industries, new or existing, would benefit from the technology the most? Why?

3. Using the System Model (Scalable Innovation, Part I), hypothesize what system elements and interfaces still need to be invented to complement or take advantage of Alpha Go-like software.

tags: innovation, course, stanford, quiz

Stanford CSP, Scalable Innovation (BUS 134) - Session 1, Quiz 1

1. Identify at least three trends mentioned in this Bitcoin-related NYT article: A Bitcoin Believer's Crisis of Faith

2. Trends: headwinds and tailwinds
2.1. Name at least one trend that significantly increases Bitcoin's chances for success.
2.2. Name at least one trend that significantly decreases Bitcoin's chances for success.

3. Name major technology innovations that power trends positive for Bitcoin.

Examples of trend categories:

- Business
- Technology
- Science
- Finance
- Demographics
- Social
- Market
- Regulatory
etc...

tags: stanford, bus134, quiz, innovation, trends, bitcoin