Invention of a new type of electric battery will be the most important technology development of the next decade. For the electric car to become practical, we need a 10X drop in price per kilowatt-hour of energy storage.

Dec 29, 2011. MTR - ... even under optimistic assumptions, lithium-ion batteries are likely to cost around $360 per kilowatt-hour in 2030.

The U.S. Department of Energy, however, has far more ambitious goals for electric-vehicle batteries, aiming to bring the cost down to $125 per kilowatt-hour by 2020. For that, radical new technologies will probably be necessary. As part of its effort to encourage battery innovation, the DOE's ARPA-E program has funded 10 projects, most of them involving startup companies, to find "game-changing technologies" that will deliver an electric car with a range of 300 to 500 miles.

At the same time, driverless cars will also become much better. As the result, by mid 2020s we can get to the beginning of a totally new transportation infrastructure. In part, it will be driven by the dominant role of internet commerce, which implies home delivery of goods. Companies, like UPS, FedEx, and others will have huge incentives to reduce fuel costs. By mid-2030, we should expect robotic electric cars dropping off holiday presents just in time for the celebration.

tags: transportation, control, 10x, distribution, energy